Methods

This is the Method part for SJTU WDP

Method

1. Simulation of coronavirus outbreak: SEIR model (sample code + pic)

   • The population can be divided into four compartments:
     • Susceptible (those who can catch the disease)
     • Exposed (those who are exposed to the disease but don’t have symptoms yet)
     • Infected (those who show symptoms and are infective)
     • Recovered (those who have recovered and become immune).
   • The model takes into account following factors, which is reflected in initially set parameters.
     • the transition rate between Susceptible and Exposed
     • the transition rate between Infected and Recovered
     • an incubation period, during which those who are exposed are not infective
     • outbreak starts from an initial 10 infected cases
     • the pattern of movement between zones within the region in a typical day
   • The relationship between Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered is reflected in differential equations.
     $Susceptible \rightarrow Exposed \rightarrow Infected \rightarrow Recovered$
     • $dS \over dT$
     • eq2
     • eq3
     • eq4

2. Evaluate whether supply and demand meets

   • Draw the curve of infected cases with in the region. The seriousness is defined as the peak value divided by the time of reaching the peak.
     • pic1
3. Decide the location of the fifth clinic based on current simulation
   • Use a mathematical formula to determine the effectiveness of a new location. The lower the value is, the better the location will be.
     • $Effectiveness=\sum_{i=0}^n w_0((x - x_0)^2 + (y - y_0)^2)$
   • Divide the map into grid and calculate the effectiveness for each cell
   • Display the effectiveness in the form of heatmap, which will indicate the optimal location